Chili  is  one  of  vegetable  commodities  that  have  high  economic  value,  because  of  its  role  to  meet domestic needs, as an export commodity and food industries. This study begins with the identification of  the  basic  model  of  supply  chain  and  the  problem  in  the  chilli  industry.  Furthermore, the model is analyzed with system dynamics approach and simulation was done to know the behavior of the system in chili industry. The behavior of chili supply chain system will be increased until year 2025, but margin of the price will be increased too. Therefore, improvement scenarios are to decrease a margin value of the price along the chili supply chain.  The government must determine the profit value for the chili supply chain. Also, the government must give an intervention for the price standard of marketing along chili supply chain so the price margin between farmer and the end customer will be decreased. Keywords: chili, the price margin, system dynamics, supply chain, simulation


Chili  (Capsicum  annuum  L)  is  one  of  vegetable  commodity  which  has  high  economic  value because  its  role  is  big  enough  to  fulfill  domestic  requirement  as  export  commodity  and  food  industry. Chili  is  a  strategic  horticultural  commodity,  both  red  chilli  and  cayenne  pepper.  Indonesian  society  is one of the biggest chili enthusiasts in the world. Therefore, chili becomes one of the important products of Indonesian food, even it can affect the rate of inflation.Chili needs for large cities with a population of one million or more about 800,000 tons / year or 66,000 tons / month. In “hajatan” or religious festivals, chili needs usually increase in 10-20% of normal requirement.  Chili  productivity  rate  nationally  during  thelast  5  years  about  6  tons  /  ha.  The  urban community to meet the monthly needs is required chilli harvested area of about 11,000 ha/month, while in the celebration season of harvested area of chili that is available ranges of 12.100-13.3 ha / month. Also,  the  needs  of  chili  for  rural  communities  or  small  towns  as  well  as  for  processed  raw  materials (Suwandi, et al.,2016). To meet all the needs of chili is needed supply of chili sufficient. If the supply of chili  is  less  or  lower  than  the  demand  so  the price  will  increase.  Conversely,  if  the  supply  of  chilli exceeds the need, the price will decrease.In  terms  of  price,  chilli  has  a  characteristic  often  occur  very  high  price  fluctuations.  For example,  a  surge  in  prices  above  100%  is  very  common.  Even  in  January  1996  the  price  of  chilli jumped  about  327%  compared  to  the  previous  month’s  price.  Chili  price  increases  to  recur  within  2-3 months  and  then  thereafter  decrease  to  2-3  months.  By  using  the  Coefficient  of  Diversity  (KK)  as  an indicator  of  stability, the  price  of  chili  in  2010  reached  57%  and  the  price  of  red  chili  pepper  in  2010 reached 35%, much higher than the price of rice and sugar in the region, at 6.6% and 3,7% (Farid and Subekti. 2012).Toward the end of the year until the beginning of the year, the price of chilli spikes high enough to reach more than Rp 100.000 / kg, while at a certain price can fall belowRp 10.000 / kg.These seasonal price fluctuations occur almost every year. The spike in the price of chili is due to  reduced  supply,  while constant  and  continuous  demand  every  day,  even  increasing  in  certain seasons.  Fluctuations  in  the  price  of  chilli  occur  due  to  seasonal  production  of  chili,  rain  factor, production  cost  and  length  of  distribution  channel  (Farid  and  Subekti  2012).  Meanwhile,  the  price

Growing Chillies (Capsicum Annuum, Capsicum Var.)

How To Grow Chili Peppers

Are you growing chillies or chilis? Nevermind the different spellings, there are even more shapes, sizes and colours!

At one stage growing chillis was a special passion of mine.
Do you know how many different varieties there are? And how ornamental they are?

Just gorgeous!

or a while I had about 25 different chilli varieties growing…

But let’s forget about me. Everybody needs to grow chillis for cooking. Even if you don’t like hot food, just a little hint of chilli to warm it up stimulates the taste buds and everything else tastes just so much better. True.

And chillies will brighten up your garden!

But before we get to the instructions for growing chillis, lets sort out the spelling, lest you think I don’t know any better…

How Hot Will Your Chillies Be?

The heat of chillies is caused by naturally occurring ingredients called capsaicins and is measured on the Scoville scale. The scale ranges from zero (capsicums/bell peppers) to 16,000,000 (pure capsaicin).

It’s not possible to assign an accurate Scoville unit amount to a plant because the heat of the fruit will vary with the weather, the age of the plant, the soil and however the plant feels on any given day.

Still, some varieties are hotter than others, so here is a list of well known varieties, in ascending order on the Scoville scale, from zero to around 500,000:

Where Can You Grow Chillis?

Chilli plants love heat. They are closely related to capsicums/bell peppers and also related to tomatoes (they are in the same family, the solanaceae), but chillies prefer their growing conditions a lot hotter.

Chilli seeds need 20°C/68°F to germinate, and it should be 30°C/86°F or more for the fruit to ripen. Night temperatures should not drop below 15°C/60°F, at least not on a regular basis. The odd cool spell is ok.

Chillies also don’t mind humidity as much as sweet peppers or tomatoes do.

Most people will need to grow chillis in full sun. In the hottest, sunniest regions chillies still grow well with a bit of shade. Especially afternoon shade can even be beneficial.  It will prevent the fruit from getting sunburned.

If you live in the tropics or subtropics, great. Your chillies should thrive. Even the “annual” varieties should live for two to three years and produce fruit for you all year round.

If your climate is not tropical, don’t despair. You can still grow chillies if you get decent summers. And you can extend the growing season by growing chilis indoors, just like you do with tomatoes.

Chillis are related to tomatoes, so the growing methods and requirements are similar. Except that chillies need more heat.

People with small gardens or balconies will be pleased to hear that you can grow chillis in pots.

How To Grow Chillies From Seed

You can buy chilli plants in a nursery or you can grow chillis from seed. Remember that the seed needs at least 20°C/68°F to germinate.

Start them in early spring in cooler climates or any time during the dry season in the tropics.
You could start them all year round in the tropics but it’s a good idea to let the plants grow strong before the wet season hits them.

Chilli plants are usually started in seedling trays or small pots. They are very vulnerable when small and they don’t grow all that fastStill, I prefer to start mine directly in the ground because like capsicums, chillis don’t like being transplanted.

Actually, I only start them in the ground when I have enough seed to allow for a high percentage of fatalities.
(I am the laziest gardener I know, so I don’t look after my seedlings much.)
I usually have enough because I save my own seed.

If I buy seed of a new chilli variety and I get one of those tiny packets with barely a dozen seeds in them, then I start them in pots.

You can plant several chilli seeds per pot. Once your seedlings have a few leaves, snip off the weaker ones and only keep the strongest plants.

You only want one chilli plant per pot when you plant them out.

Otherwise you will disturb their roots too much and they HATE having their roots disturbed.

If you grow chillies in seedling trays or little punnets, plant them out once they have four to six true leaves (are about 5 cm/2 inches tall). If you don’t, their roots will start feeling restricted and it will set them back.

Chillies don’t mind growing in bigger pots, so the timing for planting them out is not critical if you use pots. If you live in a cooler climate, use pots. Let them to grow to 10 to 15 cm/4-6 inches. Make sure it’s warm enough before you put them outside!

Water the chillies before transplanting, so the soil doesn’t fall apart when you remove them from the pot. Be VERY careful when removing the seedlings from their pots.

Drop them in a hole in the garden, fill it back in, firm down the soil, water. Done.

Growing Chilli Plants

Chillies grow in a variety of soils. Like most plants they grow better in rich soils and produce more fruit, but they will grow in any reasonably fertile soil and don’t need any special treatment. If you use plenty of mulch and compost in your garden the chillies will grow just fine.

If your soil is poor, you’ll have to fertilize your chillies. (And start using more mulch and compost.)

When fertilizing chillies keep in mind that, like their relatives and indeed most fruiting plants, chillies like potassium. Too much nitrogen will make them grow lots of soft leaves and no fruit.

It is important to keep your chilli plants well watered and mulched. Mulch not only improves soil over time, it also protects it from drying out.

Chillies have such a tough and hardy image, people often don’t realize how sensitive they are when it comes to lack of water. Make sure your chillies have plenty and never dry out.

At the same time, don’t overwater. The soil should be free draining. Chillies don’t grow in swamps.

Problems When Growing Chillies

Chillies have weak branches. If they are loaded with fruit they can snap off. The whole plants are prone to branches drooping on the ground and breaking off, so you may want to give them some support.

(I don’t. I just cut off the broken branches and the bush grows new ones. Chillies don’t mind if you prune them.)

A stake will also prevent the whole plant from toppling over, which also happens because their roots are only shallow and not very strong.

Root knot nematodes can cause the plant to wilt and die for no obvious reason. However, root knot nematodes are a sign of very poor soils. If you add lots of compost and mulch to your garden you shouldn’t have any trouble.

Other than that chillies grow happily and aren’t bothered much by any pests or diseases. If they struggle it’s usually a sign that the soil is not as good as you thought.

Did I mention that compost and mulch is great stuff?

Harvesting Chilli Peppers

Chillies are quick to fruit and flower. How quick depends on the variety and on the temperature.

You can harvest the first chillis green once they reach full size. Or you wait until they turn red, or whatever colour they are supposed to turn.

If you plan to dry them for chili powder or flakes, you can even leave them on the bush until they shrivel up and dry.

To harvest fresh chillies cut or pull off the mature fruit while it’s still shiny and plump.

If you pull it off, pull it upwards, exactly opposite to the direction in which it bends down. Then it should snap off at the joint, without breaking off the whole branch. Otherwise just snip them off.

The fruit will last in a sealed bag in the fridge for up to a week.

You can dry it in the dryer or sun dry it, you could also just string it up and hang it up to dry in an airy spot.

Pound it to flakes or put it in the blender to make cayenne pepper and chili powder.

A Word Of Warning

You don’t need to eat chillies for them to burn you!

Just wait till you get Habanero chilli juice under your fingernails for the first time…

When cutting fresh chillies, make sure to scrub your hands well after. Don’t touch your skin and especially don’t touch your eyes! The hottest chillies can make you go blind. I am not kidding.

When working with dry chilli be VERY careful not to breathe in any powder. Also don’t get it in your eyes.

Proceeding the 1stInternational Conference on Food Security Innovation 2017 ; 142 –160 p143Ridwan et al.disparity  between  chilli  regions  occurred  because  the  center  of  pepper  production  is  concentrated  on Java  and  the  quality  of  road  infrastructure  is  inadequate  (Irawan  2007).  The  problem  of  national  chili supplies availability is very important to be studied because it concerns national food security.Food  security  is  one  of  the  decisive  factors  in  the  national  stability  of  a  country,  both  in economic, security, politics and social. Food security is a major program in agricultural development at present  and  in  the  future.  Food  security  is  the  condition  of  the  fulfillment  of  household  food  which  is reflected  from  the  availability  of  adequate  food,  both  quantity  and  quality,  safe,  equitable,  and affordable. Measures of food security in terms of self-sufficiency (independence) can be seen from the dependence  of  national  food  availability  on  food  production  in  the  country.  The  concept  of  self-sufficiency (independence) is scenario as a condition where national food requirement is at least 90% fulfilledfrom domestic production (Suryana, 2004).Although food availability is sufficient at the national and regional levels, but if individual access to meet food needs is uneven so food security is still fragile. The aspect of the distribution of foodstuff torural  households  that  includes  the  function  of  place,  space  and  time  is  also  an  effort  to  strengthen food security strategies so it is important to assess supply availability in chili pepper supply chain in the framework of national food security.Severalscientific studies related to this research have been conducted by several researchers. Sahara et al. (2011) examines the effect of quality farmer-chili merchant relationships of Indonesia on supply  chains  in  modern  and  traditional  markets.  Hadi  and  Susetyo  (2011)  studied  the  marketing margin  of  red  chili  in  Jember  district.  Prabhavathi  et  al.  (2013)  examines  the  supply  chain  analysis  of red  peppers  in  India  comparing  two  types  of  supply  chains.  Kurniawan  et  al.  (2014)  examines  the analysis and measurementof supply chain efficiency of large red chili commodities in Jember District. Ongirwalu et al. (2015) examines the downstream evaluation of the supply chain in the chili commodity logistics system in the traditional market of Pinasungkulan Manado. Tuti,K. etal.(2015)examines the design  of  a  red  chili  commodity  supply  chain  modeling  model  in  West  Java  with  a  structured  market orientation using case study method with qualitative modeling approach through identification of value stream mapping. Buntuan (2010) conducted a study on early simulation for food crisis management by using  dynamic  simulation  method  to  see  the  parameters  affecting  food  crisis  then  simulated  with dynamic model. Akhmad (2013) conducted a study on food security with data analysis using a dynamic model on rice supply chain.Supply  chain  is  composed  by  a  number  of  interacting  entities  through  a  distinct  interaction pattern according to the structure formed. The more number of entities involved in the supply chain will affect the structure and determine the complexity of a supply chain. These entities interact to achieve a common goal, namely the final consumer. According to Zhou and Benton (2007), a supply chain is an integrated  system.  As  a  system,  the  point  of  view  of  the  analysis  of  the  supply  chain  must  be comprehensive. The entire system components must be viewed as an integral whole. Inequality in one component will disrupt the system as a whole. Therefore, the purpose of a study or analysis of a supply chain is a proportionate increase overall across entities from upstream to downstream.This  research  was  conducted  to  identify  the  basic  system  of  chili  pepper  supply  chain  in achieving  national  food  security,  to  formulate  conceptual  system  and  formulation  of  chili  supply  chain model to achieve national food security, and to know the behavior of chili supply chain system for the next 10 year

                                                   RESEARCH METHOD

The design of dynamic system of chili supply chain starts from the analysis of the situation and condition of chili industry in Indonesia, then identifies the basic system of chili supply chain by looking at upstream and downstream sub-system diagrams and causal loop diagram of chili supply chain. Flow diagrams with mathematical equations, simulations and validation tests into supply chain models with economic and social aspects as policy analysis or decision.  This research is a combination of

Proceeding the 1stInternational Conference on Food Security Innovation 2017 ; 142 –160pSupply chain design of chili commodity…..144explanatory  research  and  causal  research  that  is  combination  of  secondary  data  analysis  and experiment.  Exploratory  research  with  secondary  data  analysis  to  know  the  situation  and  problem  of national chili, while causal research with experiment to know the relationship between phenomenal model.

Data Retrieval

Data onto this research are primary and secondary data.  Primary  data  obtained  from the observation  and  direct  interviews  for  the  relevant  sources  include  several  farmer  groups,  merchant, and chili consumers, while secondary data obtained from relevant agencies include the Central Bureau of Statistics, the Department of Trade and the Department of Agriculture.

Solution to problem

Problem  solving  plot  is  a  general  step  done  in  doing  research.  The problem solving flow is useful for providing information on the beginning of the research to the completion of the research. The following is a problem solving plot as an overview of the research undertaken

Basic Chain Supply Chain System

Supply chain  as  a  system  cannot  be  separated  from  the  close  relationship  between components,  as  well  as  the  supply  chain  system  on  horticultural  commodities  such  as  chili.  Chili availability  system  is  divided  into  three  sub-systems  namely  sub-system  production  (manufacturer), sub-system  distribution  (supplier),  and  sub-system  consumption  (consumer).  All  three  of  these interconnected  systems  form  a  chili  supply  chain  system  (Figure  2).  

The components of the supply chain in more detail as shown in Figure

The  distribution  and  marketing  system  covered  by  the  chili  supply  chain  vary  by  region  of production and market objectives. Chili supply chain is still largely targeted to meet the local, provincial and  provincial  markets  for  example:  Jakarta,  Bogor,  Depok,  Tangerang,  Bekasi  (Jabodetabek) markets,  Banten  markets  and  Bandung  markets.  The  traders  involved  in  the  distribution  of  chilli  are traders,  wholesalers  or  wholesalers  including  suppliers  of  processing  industries,  and  retailers,  both traditional market retailers and modern markets (supermarkets, hypermarkets and supermarkets).Collecting   traders acts   as   collectors   and   buyers   of   pepper   production   from   farmers. Wholesalers,  in  addition  to  acting  as  buyers  of  the  products  of  collecting  traders  and  farmers,  often also  play  the  role  of  capital  providers  (informal  finance  institutions)  for  the  farmers and  collecting traders  who  are  their  accomplices.  Capital  loans  to  farmers  can  be  in  the  form  of  money  or  nature (seeds, fertilizers, and medicines).In  the  supply  chain  institutional,  farmers  act  as  chilli  producers,  which  is  responsible  for  the production  process  of  chili.  Collecting  traders  act  as  collectors  and  buyers  of  pepper  production  from

Proceeding the 1stInternational Conference on Food Security Innovation 2017 ; 142 –160pSupply chain design of chili commodity…..146farmers.  Wholesalers  act  as  buyers  of  the  products  of  collecting  merchants  and  capital  providers  for the  farmers  and  collecting  traders  who  are  their  subordinates.  Inter-island  traders  play  a  role  in distributing  inter-regional  chili  commodities,  these  actors  usually  have  transport  fleets,  especially trucks and pickup trucks. Market retailers play a direct selling role to consumers in traditional markets and modern markets (Supermarkets, Hypermarkets and Supermarkets) that sell chilies to consumers directly in central consumption areas. In addition to knowing the supply chain chili pepper, another thing that is not less important is the marketing margin of chili on every component of the supply chain. The result of Hadi and Susetyo (2011)  research  on  marketing  margin  analysis  of  red  pepper  in  Jember  District  shows  that  during planting  season  I  and  II  in  2011  amounted  to  IDR  37.250/  Kg.  This margin  is  above  the  price  of  red pepper at the producer level of only IDR 20,750/kg. Indeed, between the margin value should be much smaller than  the  price  at  the  producer  level.  The  margin  value  consists  of  Share  price  received  by farmers  amounting  to  35.78%  of  the  price  paid  by the  end  consumer  and  amounted  to  64.22%  is  the share of marketing margin. The total marketing margin of 27.40% is the marketing cost incurred by the four  marketing  agencies  involved  and  then  36.82%  is  the  advantage  of  the  four  marketing  agencies involved. The description of the injustice of marketing share of red chilli in  as indicated above indicates that  the  marketing  process  of  chili  has  excess  demand  or  undersupply  chilli  products.  Therefore,  the government  tries  to  intervene  in  the  market  through  imported  chili  actions  from  India,  China  and Vietnam.  Nevertheless,  the  price  of  the  product  has  not  been  any  signs  of  decline  even  tends  to increase until close to IDR 100.000/kg and even outside the region can reach above IDR 100.000/kg to IDR  150.000/kg.  What a  very  irrational  price.  This  means  that  the  price  of  red  chili  is  high  at  the consumer level and very low at the farm level, so the high price is only enjoyed by the traders involved in the marketing process. If the price of the sky is higher than the value of its marketing margin, it may still be accepted by economic  logic.  Viewed  from  the  profit  ratio  aspect  that  the  highest  average  ratio  experienced  by retailers  and  the  lowest  received  by  traders  between  regions  (districts).  This  means  that  the  level of fairness  in  receiving  profits  is  very  unfair  compared  to  the  proportion  of  costs  incurred  by  each marketing agency. Supposedly the highest ratio experienced by traders between regions / districts with the  highest  marketing  expenditure  of  each  product  Kg,  not  by  retailers  whose  marketing  costs  on average  only  IDR  838  /  kg.  Symptoms  of  the  high  price  of  red  chili  due  to  bad  weather  so  that production plummeted that led to a limited supply. However, the government has taken import actions from India, China, and Vietnam, but product prices remain expensive. Conceptual Model Supply Chain of Chilli 1.Problem Definition The dynamic model illustrates the interactions between elements that make up the chili supply chain system.  The  problem  of  chilli  availability  is  a  fairly  complex  system  problem  involving  various components, variables in which interact and integrated. The availability of chili nationally can be viewed as  a  system  dynamics  problem  that  changes  over  time  and  is  influenced  by  factors  that  are  also dynamic. The purpose of modeling the availability of chili is to look at the pattern of chili availability in the future to improve national food security with a variety of scenario development alternatives that are in line with real conditions. The developed system dynamics model is limited to matters relating to the supply, supply and demand  of  chili.  This  model  is  made  based  on  the  identification  of  problems  poured  into  the  causal loop, formulated in stock and flow diagrams and simulated using Powers software.2.Identification of Key Variable In determining the level of national chili availability, researchers need to know the factors that affect  the  supply  of  chili.  Based  on  the  observation  and  literature  study  it  is  known  that  the  national chili  availability  level  is  the  difference  between  the  production  and  consumption  of  chili.  Chili

Proceeding the 1stInternational Conference on Food Security Innovation 2017 ; 142 –160 p147Ridwan et al.production  is  influenced  by  variables  such  as  planting  area,  productivity,  farmer  household  income, cultivated  area,  conversion  of  land,  conversion  and  intensification  of  cultivated  area.  Constants are required as inputs to the model in addition to these variables, making it easier to modify the model in case of changes in accordance with the actual conditions. These constants include the percentage of additional  planting  costs,  the  area  of planting  area  (intensification)  per  year,  and  the  percentage  of land conversion (conversion) per year. Chili consumption is influenced by variables such as chili production, household consumption, industrial consumption,  aging  for  seeds and  scattered.  Chili consumption is  strongly  influenced  by people’s  behavior  in  consuming  chili.  Level  of  pepper  needs  can  be  seen  from  the  dynamics  of population development that is very influential on the demand for chili for consumption. The dynamics of this population model will produce output in the form of future population forecasts. The dynamics of population development are formed through the interaction between the variables of the population of Indonesia with the variable rate of population growth and the rate of death of the population that form a relationship. The greater the rate of population growth per year the greater the annual population, the greater the rate of death of the population, the less the annual population. The consumption pattern is based  on  population  dynamics  and  the  average  requirement  of  chili  for  consumption  is  converted  in kg/capita/year.  Required  variable  (constant)  level  of  chili  consumption  which  input  average  chili consumption  in  accordance  with  real  conditions  to  know  the  consumption  needs  of  chili.  Chili consumption  level  variables  will  further  impact  the  positive  effect  on  the  amount  of  chili  consumption. The  greater  the  level  of  chili  consumption  per  capita,  the  greater  the  amount  of  chili  needed  for consumption.In addition, the relationship between production and consumption of chili will affect the supply chain dynamics. In terms of supply or distribution there is a supply chain component which is described by several variables such as producer price, collectors, small traders, wholesalers, retailers, consumer prices, and income from RTs. The relationships among these variables will simulate how the effect of price changes on the producer level on prices in each other supply chain components.3.Reference ModelReference  models  related  to  the  design  of  the  chain’s  dynamic  supply  chain  model  or  the agricultural  commodity  supply  chain  model,  Akhmad  Mahbubi  (2013),  entitled  “The  Dynamic Model of Sustainable Rice Supply Chain in National Food Security Efforts”. 4.Development of Causal Loop DiagramCausal simulation model is the basis of making the main model simulation. Causal simulation model is built based on the relationship between variables in the model (Japar et al., 2013) The Causal Loop  Diagram  relation  explains  the  causal  relationship  between  variables  with  each  other.  The relationships between these variables form a long  chain of  causal loops that  will provide feedback on other variables. Causal Loop diagram explains about the causal relationship of supply availability level of chili influenced by the level of production, distribution (supply) and level of consumption. Causal  Loop  The  diagram  above  illustrates  the  relationship  between  production,  distribution and  consumption  of  chili.  A  causal  relationship  with  a  positive  sign  (+)  indicates  if  the  dependent variable  increases  then  the  independent  variable  will  increase.  Similarly,  the  causal  relationship  with the  negative  sign  (-)  indicates  if  the  dependent  variable  increases  then  the  independent  variable  will decrease

Behavior of Chilli Supply Chain System for the Next 10 Years

Modeling  the  dynamics  of  chili  availability  system,  model  design,  simulation  and  analysis  is done by referring to the objectives and scenarios in each model. Some policy scenarios to be used in behavioral analysis. The chili supply chain system for the next 10 years is as follows:

 Scenarios without Policy Change

This  scenario  is  assumed  as  a  simulation  result  without  any  policy  changes  such  as government  intervention  to  see  system behavior  over  the  next  10  years  and  determine  the  point  of improvement  whether  in  the  production  sub-sub-system,  consumption  sub-system  or  distribution  sub-system (supplier).

1.Sub System Production

The production sub-system is related to matters affecting the production of chili, ie planting or harvest area, production, cultivated area and household income of chili farmers. Below is a projection result on chilli production sub system for 10 years ahead. From  the  simulation  result,  the  value  of  chili  harvest area  and  cultivated  area  increase  every year,  while  chili  production  fluctuated  or  fluctuated  during  the  next  10  years.  The highest  production occurred in 2024, which was 2,356,992 tons and the lowest was 2014 at 1,451,654 tons. Fluctuations in  chili  production  is  due  to  changes  in  the  productivity  of  chili  due  to  climate  and  crop  failure  due  to pests or other natural factors. In terms of income RT chili farmers value increases every year where in 2025  income  of  RT  chili  farmers  with  an  area  of 0.1  ha  of  land  is  IDR  47,007,430  per  year.  This indicates that there  will be an increase in the welfare of chili farmers and show the  prospect of better chili farming business

2.Sub System Consumtion

The  consumption  sub-system  is  related  to  the  things  that  affect  the  consumption  of  chilli,  ie consumption of RT, industrial consumption, scattered and seeds. Here is a of projection result on chili consumption sub system for 10 years ahead.

3 Comparison of Chili Production and Consumption

Based on the simulation results  show that the production rate of  chilli is greater than the total use  of  chili  in  Indonesia.  The  following  is  the  result  of  projected  comparison  of  production  and  use  of chili for the next 10 years.

4.Sub System Distribution (Supply)The  distribution  sub-system  deals  with  matters  affecting  the  distribution  of  chilies  from producers to consumers. In the sub-distribution system the components involved consist of producers / chili farmers, collectors / wholesalers, small traders, wholesalers,  and retailers. The focus of this sub-system on supply chain is the price margin from upstream to downstream of chili pepper supply chain.From  the  simulation  result,  the  price  of  chilli  turns  up  from  year  to  year  both  side  of  producer and consumer. However, the price margin between producer price and consumer price is also higher. If left then it will cause harm both side of the manufacturer and the consumer side. Here is a table and graph of simulation results in chilli distribution sub-system for the next 10 years.To  see  the  price  differences  in  each  component  of  the  chili  supply  chain  the  following  table  9 and price comparison charts on the chili supply chain components are presented.



The  dynamic  system  model  of  chili  supply  chainis  appropriate  and  acceptable  so  that  the result  of  this  research  can  be  summarized  as  follows. First,  the  national  chili  system  consists  of several  subsystems,  including  distribution  or  supply,  production,  and  consumption.  Each  subsystem consists of elements or elements that are more specific and influenced by the development of time so that  the  national  neglect  system  is  dynamic.  The  national  neglect  system  is  cross-sectoral  because  it encompasses  various  related  institutions,  such  as  chili  consumption  subsystem  related  to  population problem, whereas production subsystem is related to land area and agriculture cultivation. Second, the result  of  chili  production  subsystem  is  influenced  by  variables  such  as  planting  area,  conversion  of land, conversion, extensification,  productivity and income of chili farmers. The distribution  subsystem, the  supply  of  chili  depends  on  the  price  margin  on  the  chili  supply  chain  components  composed  of components of marketing and profit costs. Chili consumption is influenced by the behavior of people in consuming  chillies  on  the  consumption  subsystem.  Submodel  consumption  needs  can  be  seen dynamics  of  the  development  of  the  population  that  is  very  influential  on  the  demand  for  chili  for consumption. Third,  the  result  of  scenario  without  policy  change  then  chili  food  security  will  be sustainable with the value of production above the level of use of chili so that for the next 10 years food security  for  chili  is  still  safe.  However,  the  value  of  the  price  margin  is  higher  so  the  improvement scenario is done to minimize the marketing margin value

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